Nobody likes war, if of sound mind. Nobody. Unfortunately, if we can’t find something (fast) to take Putin down and force Russia to retreat, the likelihood that we’ll need to get involved is increasing.
Note when I say “we” I refer to the Allies; not just the US. And it would probably need to be started as a United Nations action.
I don’t make this statement lightly. And I know we all want to avoid escalation, as Putin continues to rattle the nuclear sword, making our administration and allies cower in fear. But I submit that the escalation line is already drawn; the only question remaining is when each step will take place. Ukraine is suffering an unimaginable genocide; they aren’t the first stop in this battle. Whether NATO or not, more nations are next.
History gives us sharp lessons; we need to look back and listen to our past. Sure, the stakes are even higher today, as weapons have dramatically increased in deadliness, but the chess pieces are all still eerily similar. Let’s look back and try to remember (for those of us that actually were taught history in High School and College, as opposed to the curricula I am seeing being taught today):
In WWI: The US stood outside, declaring neutrality, as Germany swept across Europe. For over 3 years we stood by and watched war, and war crimes – including chemical weapons – being committed against civilians. But the war caught up to us, after the Lusitania and severe losses in merchant shipping (supply lines from the US) were destroyed by unrestricted sub warfare by the Germans. One of the final straws was the Zimmerman telegram to Mexico, offering to let Mexico annex Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona, should they side with the Germans. We entered late, as the war grew from a small regional battle, to engulf all of Europe and beyond. 40 million died.
In WWII: We again stood by as Hitler, angered as a soldier in WWI, rebuilt Germany, unchecked by Versailles restrictions. He held the Olympics in Berlin, then crushed Poland shortly afterward. We watched. We supplied Britain with arms and munitions. Then planes. Then aviators. Then ships. Europe fell, except for Britain. We saw Japan on the other side of the world side with Germany and Italy. They invaded China in the 30’s as well. We sanctioned them, cutting off resources including oil. They attacked us in 1941 in Hawaii, crippling our Pacific fleet, and proceeded to sweep across the Pacific and East Asia, conquering almost everything in their path. We declared war – we entered late. 80 million died.
War on Terror: We stood by with minimal response throughout the 90s (Clinton years) as several US Embassies were bombed in East Africa; the USS Cole was bombed while in a foreign port; the first attempt to bomb the World Trade Center was made; but most importantly, Al Qaida’s Bin Laden was identified as the leader and when he was in the US cross-hairs, Clinton aborted the operation. Then 9/11 happened in the first few months that Bush was in office, and we were pulled into war.
Today we have the Hitler of the 21st Century: Putin. He was in East Germany (KGB) when the USSR started to collapse, and he’s held a deep grudge ever since. He attempted to invade Kosovo in 1999, just as Clinton was declaring victory; Yeltsin had no clue – Putin soon replaced him as President. It was a mere few hours that saw Hungary and Ukraine not give flight clearance to several Russian transports full of special forces trying to retake Kosovo ahead of NATO peacekeepers. The he invaded Georgia in 2008 (end of Bush, start of Obama). He invaded Crimea in 2014 (Obama). He aided Syria’s Assad in 2015 and beyond, with bombs, aircraft, soldiers, and chemical weapons. Today is the rest of Ukraine. Moldova is quite probably next. Finland and Sweden see the writing on the wall. NATO countries like Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania see what’s going on, recognize the tactics, and are extremely concerned. This is going to grow bigger and de-stabilize the world even more if we can’t bring it to a close … quickly.
What’s the take-away? Several, actually:
- Patterns repeat throughout history. Hindsight should be paid attention to, as we contemplate delaying until the last minute. We should have better-armed Ukraine when they asked – years ago. Recall they were the #3 nuclear arsenal until the mid-90’s … we got them to disarm with the promise that we’d always “have their back”. Look at us now? We should have sanctioned before the war even started. That ship has sailed. Now thousands are dying on mainland Europe.
- Eventually sanctions put adversaries in a corner. We need to be prepared for the response scenarios; judging how our president is not even close to leading the world (he’s following the UK and others), and is even being led by our own congress, I fear he’s not prepared for the result.
- The risk of escalation isn’t yet to come – it’s already here. It started the moment Russia stepped across the Ukraine border. If history provides any lesson at all, it is that this is a beginning, not an end. Putin’s history, and the relationships he seeks (China, Iran, Venezuela, Cuba), should make that painfully obvious.
- Escalation is costly. Lack of intervention, or delayed intervention, can be dramatically costlier. Neutrality, isolationism, and other similar policies had all led to one thing: Failure, with a heavy price on the tail end.
- Ukraine does impact and affect us all. An ocean does not make us safe. That’s even more true now than 100 years ago. They are (were) a massive wheat supplier to a lot of the world. They have lost over 3M people to refugee status (almost 1 in 10 Ukrainians). They are the doorstep to several other Euro countries. Etc. etc.
- Adversaries are today adding the world’s response into the calculus for the actions they are planning. Make absolutely zero mistake about that. Iran just fired a bunch of missiles into Iraq a few days ago. We call that a strawman. North Korea is now getting ready to test-launch an ICBM – first ever. Another big strawman. Saudi Arabia won’t even take Biden’s calls now. And don’t forget China – now being asked to aid Russia, all while it has directly overflown Taiwan with warplanes in just the last couple of weeks; for the first time ever.
I have no desire to go to war. But how soon we forget what it takes to keep the world at peace and safe. We haven’t had to think that way for a few generations – we had hoped we wouldn’t have to, ever again.
