On this, the day before the 80th Anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor, I look at the world stage and recall recent posts where we discussed increasing stressors on world stabilization. These were in the form of aggressive moves by Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. Today those moves are all escalating, in the face of a very, very weak US foreign policy that has the unfortunate possible outcome that none of us want to see.
Let me be very, very clear: Historically it has been proven time and again that weakness breeds aggression, and strength breeds deterrence. Period.
Our policy of appeasement, our inability to coax Iran back to the ill-conceived JCPOA (as they now embark on full-scale nuclear weapons development), our failure in Anchorage with China, our failure with Russia in Geneva, our Afghanistan debacle, our retreat in the Black Sea, our failure to stand firmly with Taiwan, our inability to get Pyongyang to even answer their phone (with new missile tests happening weekly), our failed bribery of Hamas to stop rocket attacks, our departure from energy independence (and placing Europe into Russian dependence), and our failed leadership in Geneva have all – yes, all – occurred in the last 8 months.
Weakness is breeding aggression.
Joint military exercises by China, Russian, and Iran should make everyone very uneasy. Yet it has now happened. And NO main stream media carried it.
Biden has a shot to stop or seriously slow some of this, starting again tomorrow with a call with Putin. I am hopeful yet pessimistic, seeing how he has not held up well in previous calls. And Anthony Blinken is a poor excuse for a strong SOS; Anchorage, among several other events, have proven that to frightful extremes.
Time and again non-partisan analysts and media have been warning about this, but far too many of us have thought, “give Joe a chance, he’ll be fine”. And now, as if to have a delayed reaction, Biden’s own analysts are sounding warnings all over the Pentagon and State Department for the exact same thing those other non-Biden analysts started warning about months ago. As I type this now, I am hoping I am reading this all wrong… but the signs have historical backing and impending opportunity, all at the same time. Needless to say, I find myself nervous for the first time in a while. Those of you that said “Trump’s going to get us into a war” – well, folks, again I point out that nobody fights the bully… everyone picks on the weakling or exploits their vulnerabilities. While that’s a bit of a neanderthal point of view (and I agree), in it’s rawest of forms, it should ring true with us all. If anyone runs the risk of a major global conflict, it’s the guy in the oval office today.
In the recent decades weakness has led to further aggression: The first World Trade Center bombing with no harsh punishment (that then led to the second successful attacks on 9/11), the “red lines in the sand” and allowed close-proximity overflights of US warships that then opened the door for chemical obliteration of tens of thousands of Syrians by their own leader while Russia moved unopposed into Crimea, and most recently the departure from Afghanistan that has still left over 200 US Citizens stranded, and used “over the horizon” attacks unsuccessfully, killing the wrong people.
Today feels a lot like the Cassandra syndrome. I sincerely want to be wrong, and want all of you to tell me “I told you that you were wrong” as we roll into 2024.
Today, as 100,000 Russian troops are now amassed on the Ukraine border, with 75,000 reservists coming in behind to support, we also see logistics and supply lines, artillery, and other weaponry on satellite. We see China moving an entire air wing to shores just adjacent to Taiwan, as they now float a naval force with more ships than the US. We see our satellites being attacked through various means on a daily basis, by China, according to our own Space Force commanders. We see Iran becoming more emboldened to go after Israel with new Chinese and Russian funding and backing. We see OPEC squeezing the west because now they can.
What makes me nervous? Simple: As we depart the Christmas holiday, and just as the Olympic torch is extinguished in China in later February, will aggressive events begin to happen on multiple fronts? I hope not. But the best people to react poorly in our interests are in perfect position.
