May 2020 – We think “Short Game” – which will hurt us if we don’t realize it

I know I’m a little too doom-and-gloom at times, but after researching both current and historical factors, some things really start to become clear.  A bit of a strange hobby, I agree…  But here’s one to think about, and remember you heard it here (probably) first:

Let’s start by saying that today, in swing states, Biden is ahead Trump by as much as 6 points in some polls.  Now half of you are smiling with that news, and the other half… well, you’re worried, and I suspect for most of the right reasons.

Let’s also get something else out there:  If anyone is going to vote based on Green New Deals and a promise that enviro policies need dramatic (not gradual, but dramatic) change, let me tell you with 100% confidence that a policy maneuver that drastic will not only cripple our economy, but will also land us squarely at a disadvantage on the world stage.  Yes – that is bad:  The reason the world is as it is today (and not far more unstable and hostile) is because the US has maintained the strongest posture on almost all fronts (economy, GDP, military, etc.).  If we were to lose that to, say, a European “little brother or sister”, that might be okay.  But we wouldn’t.  We would lose it to Communist China.  Gradual enviro changes are necessary – but the democrats aren’t talking about that.  It’s all “existential threat by 3pm tomorrow, so we must act aggressively right now”, etc.  That’s bad – and it’s also part of Biden’s platform.

Let’s take a quick look at the environmental factors for a brief moment:  The US, since 1970, has stayed relatively stable and even dropped in CO2 emissions in the last 10 years (including drops in the Trump years).  That, even with leaving the Paris climate accords.  Let’s also recall that those accords, that so many of you say were a travesty for the US to leave, held no (yes, absolutely zero) accountability for drops in emissions on several signing countries, including Brazil and yes, China.  So, Trump got us out of it – we were paying billions to conform and China, the biggest polluter in the world, was paying nothing and doing nothing.  Nothing.  So, I agree – if you’re in the agreement, everyone should do the same thing, right?  It’s an agreement, right?  Read the treaty, folks!  And today China keeps skyrocketing in pollutants, as does India, etc.

There’s also a bunch of talk about drilling domestically on public lands, and the “sweeping aside” of regulations by Trump.  However, if you actually go and read the original Antiquities Act, and then read the Presidential Orders he put in play, and then research the collaboration with those states’ Federal delegations, state assemblies, the BLM, and the local communities, you’ll find a totally different take on what really happened – and it wasn’t all bad, and all the designated antiquities are fully – yes, fully – protected.  In fact, when going through those statements by those communities, as an example, it’s not hard to find how disenfranchised they felt dealing with Clinton, and later Obama, as they felt they were steam-rolled, ignored, and their needs for those resources (while still protecting the antiquities) were be totally ignored.  Even when down to just grazing and recreation uses.  There is not the grand assault some believe to be in play.

But let’s get back to the short game conversation…

Let’s understand one key theory that is proving true with every passing day:  China plays the long game; the western world only plays the short game.  What does this mean?  Simple:  China can embark on a policy for decades, and simply wait out the world as those countries change leadership every 2-4 years.  In the US case, congressmen are elected every 2 years, the senators every 6 years, and the president every 4 years.  That’s a lot of flux in policies.  Contrast that with the CCP (Chinese Communist Party):  They have been the sole keeper of the power since the 1949 revolution.  In fact, they have had 5 leaders (including Xi Jinping today).  In that time we’ve rolled through 13 presidents and had 35 federal elections.  But China keeps rolling on with a long game; look at what’s happened since Nixon re-opened relations with China in 1972…

Now let’s examine the Chinese long game.  We’re right in the middle of it, and until 2017 we were losing.  US-China trade deficit alone was half a trillion dollars annually.  It could be argued that we are still losing, but at a much slower rate, and possibly toward seeing the tables turn (China just announced they want to renegotiate the Phase 1 Trade Deal they signed with the US in January, 2020 – to make it more favorable for them).  But what game are they playing?  Simple:  They want to dominate every facet of world affairs.  That means they need to replace the US as the top economic power and the top military power.  That’s it.  But they’ve been working on it for decades, and they’re succeeding – and we (and the rest of the world) let it happen.  If you don’t believe this fact, here’s more information to back that up, and please, as always, go research this for yourself:

  • China now has the largest military in the world.  They have more soldiers and more ships, but still less planes than the US.  The ratios are constantly shifting, though.  They used to just have far more soldiers…  And China is putting a large emphasis on space weaponry.
  • China has moved to dominate mineral rights in every developing market around the world.  Fossil fuel rights are owned all over Africa by China, and they also own most of the copper rights in Latin America (guess what goes into all electronics manufacturing).  These are just beginning examples; there are hundreds more.
  • China has over 360,000 students enrolled in US universities as of 2018 – this number is up 9x from just a few years earlier.  That doesn’t count European universities…
  • China is the subject of (at least) dozens of investigations in the US for espionage and attempting to steal secrets.  Technology growth areas are key targets, and Silicon Valley is considered rich hunting grounds, among others.
  • Currently at least 4 US professors are facing charges of conspiring with and moving technology secrets over to the Chinese, in exchange for large endowments and grants.  This includes Harvard, UCLA, and Kansas institutions.  Some of these guys are already under arrest by the FBI.  Ties to China and concealing of monies has gone up to department chairs and deans, and the number of universities being exposed are growing.

This is a long game…

So, time for a gut check for us all.  Knowing that China will owe the world trillions in Covid-related damages, and knowing China is succeeding at wining the long game today, the road to restitution will be long, hard-fought, and coupled with a global recession for at least the foreseeable 12-18 months.  This will be akin to a street fight with the neighborhood bully (China).  Who’s the person you believe will fight back the hardest for US interests?  What type of congress do you want to have backing that fighter up?  Think carefully about this, as we face up to 100,000 businesses not re-opening in the US after the Covid shutdown (fresh report this week).  The last 30 years of democrat platform has been all about global apologies, along with tolerance for and cooperation with China.  Biden has repeatedly said that “China is not the enemy” – on camera, dozens of time.  He has called Chinese growth a “good thing for the world” almost as many times.  Think very carefully this year, as we face somewhere near a $50-$100 trillion dollar global economic impact from China’s covering up and delaying the truth (lots of information now starting to come out on that, further incriminating the WHO head as well).  This is going to be a multi-year fight against an enemy that plays a long game.  We need to do that now, too.

John Brooks
John Brooks
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