Let’s talk today about numbers. I’ve heard a lot of unsubstantiated rhetoric about “Trump letting people die” and “Trump didn’t take action fast enough” and “Trump didn’t take it seriously”, and so on…
While this post may seem to be defending him, this is more to make sure we are all being realistic, fair, and looking at real numbers. I don’t particularly enjoy watching him speak; I don’t particularly think he is as inspiring at the podium as other world leaders. I don’t. But I also maintain, throughout the last 3 years, that actions are critical; I don’t form my opinion on his tweets, but rather on his results.
I’ll talk later about the regulations he (at the recommendation of his task force) has cleared out of the way to allow the FDA to streamline processing and testing. That has been historic, and while it does carry risk, it also may present a benefit that outweighs it in this situation.
First – let’s be clear on one fact I mentioned a couple weeks back in a post: The United States has (had) over 14,000 people from China arriving on our shores (via our airports) every single day. Way (WAY) more than other countries – combined. Trump halted that flow at the very beginning of February, within 36 hours of the WHO increasing the threat level. World leaders, and US Presidential Candidates, went on the warpath – I already quoted Bernie and Joe in my last post on this. And now the new rhetoric is as described above: “too slow” or “not enough” or “propaganda” or… He then has systematically put up more travel restrictions as more evidence of spread has been uncovered – e.g., Europe – who also panned the heck out of him.
Second – let’s make sure we all understand which major US states are seeing the biggest outbreaks: New York; Washington; California; New Jersey; Illinois (actually Illinois is number 8 on the list).
Now we need to do a little statistical analysis. Let’s not make this formula-driven, as many of my friends are much smarter than I am and deep into mathematics and statistics, and I can only come to the table with 2 years of aerospace engineering, engineering mechanics, physics, calculus, etc., and a cap of 2 semesters of economic statistics (which allowed me to catch up on my collegiate sleep, finally 😊). But all kidding and ribbing aside, we need to look at high concentrations of outbreaks, against highest volume trans-oceanic airports, measured with highest airline flight concentrations from “hot zones”. That analysis looks like this:
Major airlines serving China: United, American, Delta, Air China, Cathay Pacific (mostly Hong Kong). Note there are literally 3 dozen more airlines to add to this list, but this will get us started.
US Airports with the highest passenger volume for those airlines:
- New York JFK: Delta and American hub, also served by China carriers.
- New York Newark Liberty EWR: United hub, also served by China carriers.
- Los Angeles LAX: United, Delta, and American hub, also served by China carriers.
- San Francisco SFO: United hub, also served by China carriers.
- Seattle SEA: Delta hub, also served by China carriers.
- Chicago ORD: United and American hub, also served by China carriers.
Overlay that with air arrivals from the secondary epicenter in Europe (which arguably gained the title due to the failure to act quickly in travel restrictions), and you end up with the exact same airports, with a very, very large emphasis on the NYC airports, with multiple Euro flights per day arriving not just from our home carriers, but also a large array of Euro carriers.
Now let’s talk about infections per 1M in population. This is where the “lack of action” argument starts to lose steam, dragging the other arguments down with it. That’s not to say we aren’t going to still infect a lot more people still, but as of today, here are numbers to look at, again per million in population:
China is reporting 56 cases/mil (if they are being truthful)
Iran is reporting 258 cases/mil (if they are being truthful)
Italy is reporting 978 cases/mil
Spain is reporting 612 cases/mil
Switzerland is reporting 835 cases/mil
Norway is reporting 417 cases/mil
Austria is reporting 367 cases/mil
Germany, France, Netherlands, and Belgium all are reporting between 220-300 cases/mil each
The US is reporting 99 cases/mil
The UK is reporting 84 cases/mil
So, putting this all into perspective: The US receives the most travelers from China than any other country…by far. The US receives more European travelers than any other country…by far. Yet among the well-traveled countries, we have one of the lowest infection rates. And those rates are concentrated (mostly) around our major air terminal locations serving Chinese and European destinations.
Why did Iran see a huge spike so quickly? Simple, actually: China is the main country ignoring sanctions and sending thousands of people into Iran to help drive industries. You’d be amazed (shocked and alarmed, actually) at how many people from China are embedded all over the world.
It was very nice to see Governor Cuomo (D-NY), in several daily updates (I watched most of them), thank the task force, FEMA, the CDC Docs, the President, and the Vice President for taking his calls every day and acting based on his recommendations, or clearing the way for him to act, since NY has 21K cases, well beyond anywhere else in the US. He openly says he criticizes Trump frequently … but in this case he said they are working well together. He is being a good leader – and doing a good job, IMO.
Ultimately, anyone can armchair quarterback the numbers, the actions, and the press conference updates. They can second-guess preparedness, time to respond, equipment stockpiles (which have expirations, incidentally), and budgets. But for each of those topics there are a lot more facts that selective bullet points designed to “rile up” the audience are systematically avoiding. In the end we need to follow advisories, relax, work together, support each other, and get this behind us.
