Yes, bad pun. But let’s talk about COVID-19 for a bit. Here we are watching the markets take a huge digger, because they are being hyper-reactionists. Are there economic impacts, especially to certain industries? Of course. Travel is getting creamed right now, for instance. But again, without minimizing the risk and the threat, there still are ample arguments for putting this into perspective, while simultaneously asking ourselves “why is this being hyped so much by the media”? Yes – it has become unfortunately political. But let’s first review some facts.
Ability to withstand an economic hit: Today, as evil as they are, our banks are incredibly strong. This is not…let me repeat…NOT a financial crisis. We see the Pharma, Insurance, and Financial sectors throwing money in to eliminate copays, eliminate fees, prolong grace periods, provide loans, etc. All without needing gov’t help. Who pulled that all together? Not important – we all know the answer.
Historical perspective: Annual Influenza. In the US there are between 9-45 million people infected each year, with 12,000-61,000 deaths per year. That is a very low death rate – (well) under 1%. But it wasn’t always like that. The H1N1 flu virus has struck multiple times over the last century. First known as the Spanish Flu, it struck in 1918, killing 50 million people globally. It struck again most notably in 2009 as the Swine Flu, as a global pandemic. 61 million people in the US were infected (according to the CDC); 12,469 died in the US – also a very low death rate. There were over 575,400 deaths globally. Today the H1N1 vaccine is part of the flu shot “cocktail” many of us receive each year. At the beginning of the outbreak, however, the death rates were much, much higher. Like today.
Staying on H1N1 and 2009, note that the administration did not put up any travel bans. President Obama did not take dramatic measures, by most accounts. Contrast that with today: Who knew that the current president would act to cut travel so quickly? But here’s the key point, and it isn’t refuted by the task force that was assembled: Travel bans do not, and are not intended to, stop the spread. They are designed, however, to slow the spread. This is for several reasons, not the least of which is to lessen the number of infections, but also to lessen the spiking impact on the healthcare industry to manage those who need hospitalization and other forms of care. But it also serves to lessen the economic impact in businesses and overall industries in general. This has arguably worked (so far), especially as the US infection rate is significantly lower than other infected countries like Iran, Italy, South Korea, and China, yet it is by far the most connected country to China of all of them put together. Many of us don’t realize that during this time of year (not the summer tourist season) over 14,000 people fly from China to the US … each day. Way, way beyond what those other countries see for passenger traffic. And they go everywhere in the US.
So, what are the Covid-19 numbers and administration actions so far? Here you go:
- 116,000 infected globally
- Over 4,600 deaths globally so far
- 65,000+ recovered so far
- 1,215 US cases so far
- 36 US deaths so far
Administration actions so far:
- January 7 – first identified virus in Wuhan
- January 30 – WHO declared it a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern”
- January 30 – CDC publishes guidance for clinical care for Covid-19
- January 31 – Alex Azar (HHS Secretary) declared it a Public Health emergency for the US
- January 31 – Admin announces mandatory quarantine for those traveling back from China
- January 31 – Admin announces travel restrictions (referred to as a ban, although it wasn’t entirely) for travel to and from China
February 1 – Biden slams Trump, “This is no time for fearmongering” and “hysterical xenophobia” in response to the virus
- February 2 – Non-US citizens that recently traveled to China are banned from entering US
- February 3 – CDC publishes guidance for risk exposure
- February 27 – CDC publishes updated guidance for evaluating patients under investigation
- February 29 – long-standing FDA policies eased to help greatly expand testing capabilities and certifications
- March 2 – Administration meets with Drug industry to press them to move faster
- March 6 – President signs Covid-19 spending bill
- March 10 – Administration meets with Insurance companies to waive fees, costs, etc.
- March 11 – Administration meets with banks to ensure the will protect consumers and small businesses by giving access to cheap and free credit
The list is by no means complete and exhaustive, but it should highlight actions taken on a wide variety of fronts to go after this. Sure, we needed more tests – which also means we needed more labs certified. Red tape was cut out and removed as a result. We needed to understand the origins and paths of infections. Travel has been restricted across several countries into the US, and now also Europe, to help control and slow the spread. Economic packages are being put in place to protect workers. Democrats introduced a load of extra pieces in that legislation at (literally) 11pm last night. This is not the time for earmarks. This is not the time to be partisan. We have plenty of time left for that. Get done what needs to get done.
And for all the fearmongering and 24/7 criticism of the president’s actions that IS happening in the media: You really should be seriously ashamed of yourself. And the stock market – really needs to stop being so unreasonably reactionary. 8,000 point drops in a week with no financial crisis, goods still moving around the world, factories reopening and healthcare in full swing to get this under control (far more than H1N1, where you didn’t react like this)? Sorry – no excuse for that. And consumers hoarding in the stores? Really? I saw a lady with close to 20 boxes of cereal in an overflowing cart this weekend, along with piles of other things in bulk. Toilet paper is like gold? Since when? Using a term from a FB friend’s post earlier today: Everyone needs to stop going BSC (Bat $hit Crazy).
